Met Office: +4C by 2060 “highly plausible”, “catastrophic”


At 2:20 into the above video of a speech by President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives (Islands) at the UN Climate Summit in New York on Sept. 22, 2009, the threat posed by the impacts of climate change (breakdown, destabilization) to the ability of his people to survive, and the weight of his profound anguish, becomes clear.

Days later, a Met Office (UK) study concluded that, without strong action, a severe average global temperature increase of +4C by 2060 has become “highly plausible” and would be “catastrophic”.  The same study also warned of a potential +15C average temperature increase in the arctic (the AC for the northern hemisphere, anticipated to be gone in the Summer in only a few years) and +10C in Africa (making it pretty much impossible to stay alive, let alone want to).

As usual, many conclusions are softened and left vague, but according to our research, these increases would lead to the COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE well before 2060 (at +3C or much sooner), along with the extreme fresh water scarcity the study speaks of for at least half the world’s population. (See a brief compilation of ecoSanity’s research here)

From the Guardian article (listed below)
: Mark New, a climate expert at Oxford said: “If we get a weak agreement at Copenhagen then there is not just a slight chance of a 4C rise, there is a really big chance. It’s only in the last five years that scientists have started to realize that 4C is becoming increasingly likely and something we need to look at seriously.” Limiting global warming to 2C could only be achieved with new technology to suck greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. “I think the policy makers know that. I think there is an implicit understanding that they are negotiating not about 2C but 3C or 5C.”

In an article in the Telegraph (also listed below)
, the same expert said: “Two degrees is important politically but in terms of what is going to happen, I think a lot of people think it is a lost cause already,” he said. “Four degrees is highly plausible given the evidence and it is different enough from two degrees that we can start exploring the difficulties and what the world will look like.”

* Note: Acceptance of the statements above is madness because passing less than +2C leads to exponential, irreversible temperature increase and the eventual end of most life!



We’re *only* at +0.8C now (with a huge lag of heating in the pipe that we are already committed to, but don’t yet feel — at minimum another +0.6C and, according to the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Congress, +1.6C, for a grand total of +2.4C).  Yet it is thought that we have already moved past 3 of 8 planetary boundaries, thresholds beyond which disastrous, IRREVERSIBLE AND EXPONENTIAL consequences ensue.

The stated goal of world leaders to attempt to limit global average temperature increase to +2C above pre-industrial levels is far too high and SUICIDAL (biocidal).

Only immediate, radical action based on the LATEST science (not the outdated IPCC) *may* be able to curtail the worst impacts and delay remaining climate tipping points until we can figure out how to:

  • STOP virtually all releases of heat-trapping gasses like CO2 and the potential time bomb of methane, which, by the way, requires us to (somehow) re-freeze the arctic (!)
  • REMOVE (somehow) massive amounts of the stuff that we’ve already pumped into the atmosphere

The climate crisis is no longer only about the future and our grandkids.  With increasing hundreds of thousands dying and millions displaced and suffering each year, it is the greatest threat to human rights and livelihood in history, and to the survival of most life — this century.  It’s about US — ALL OF US, AND ALL LIFE — RIGHT NOW.

Given the extreme urgency and scale of the situation, anything less than EMERGENCY INTERNATIONAL ACTION is nonsense.



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