Guest post by ecoSanity.org Kindred Defender, Dr. Peter D. Carter, M.D., March 2, 2007
Last week, Tom Watson, the top U.S. climate expert said that there is now NO WAY we can get under 2 C (global average temp. increase) and that we will be hard pressed to get under 3 C.
If the models on effects are right, we (the economy) have already irreversibly destabilized the Greenland ice sheet, lost the coral reefs and lost the Amazon. And if the economics is not fixed, the full extent of positive carbon feedback loops will be inevitable.
The Canadian media reported that the IPCC warned we might be headed for a 3 C increase by 2100. That is not correct and not what the IPCC panel said in Paris – delivered Feb. 3, 2007. Here’s the key extract from the IPCC panel in Paris.
‘Getting hotter: If nothing is done to change current emissions patterns of greenhouse gases, global temps could increase as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 (6.4 C).’
Global CO2 emissions have doubled in the past decade, and accelerated over the past 4 years. (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Nov. 27, 2006).
Here are some quotes expressing the extent of the risks: ‘Humankind’s collective impacts on the biosphere, climate and oceans is unprecedented.’ (Lord Rees of Ludlow, President of the Royal Society, Jan 18, 2007)
‘The findings, which governments have agreed upon, leave no doubt as to the dangers mankind is facing and must be acted upon without delay.’ (Yvo de Boer, Secretary-General, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Feb. 2, 2007)
The fact is that, continuing on our present emissions path (A1F1, IPCC socio-economic scenario) gets us to an unthinkable 6.4 C by 2100 (human extinction). That’s twice as bad as Canadians, and probably the world, think the situation is.
The A1F1 scenario, which leads to 6.4 C by 2100, is based on sustained fossil fuel intensive economic growth. All economic and energy predictions are for a sustained increase in energy generation that is 80% fossil fueled. And the Canadian economy is one of the very worst for creating GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions.
The World Energy Organization predicts that:
‘Soaring world energy demand will cause global emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) to rise by 52% by 2030.’
And the World Bank reports a concern in increasing greenhouse gas emissions of 50% by 2030, and 100% by 2050.
Is this sane?
Dr. Peter D. Carter, M.D.
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