Original post: Jan. 30, 2014. Updated: April 27, 2017.
Nutshell
Global heating and climate disruption has already forced Arctic sea ice into a new state of ‘death spiral’ meltdown and it is anticipated to disappear in Summer months within a decade, or even a few short years, many decades ahead of previous estimates.
This has ALREADY had domino effects.
The air conditioner of the northern hemisphere and a major global weather regulator, it has lost 80% of its volume, almost 50% of its long-term (1979 – 2000) average extent since 1979 (watch video) and rendered the jet stream much slower, wavier, weaker (watch video) / prone to cause more extreme / prolonged weather events (storms, floods, droughts, wildfires).
The Arctic hasn’t been ice-free for somewhere between 1,450 and 4,000 years, and before that, for about 120,000 years. And a new study concludes that the last time Arctic temps were this warm was at least 44,000 and, perhaps, as many as 120,000, years ago.
The ALREADY accelerated escape of massive amounts of the powerful, heat trapping greenhouse gas, methane, buried in the frozen permafrost of northern Canada, Siberia and underwater ocean shelves, is of EMERGENCY, ‘LIFE OR EXTINCTION’-SCALE CONCERN. (Yes, really!)
Not included in any of their future scenario calculations, this omission alone renders many of the IPCC conclusions (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the primary basis for policy makers, politicians, governments and business leaders in the development of corporate strategies, all international (U.N.) climate negotiations and, now, toward a (supposed) new climate deal in 2015) to be dramatic underestimates.
And a new study has shown that, at as little as +1.5ºC of global average surface temperature increase (since pre-industrial times / pre-1900 / we’re at +0.85ºC now), the release of large amounts of methane — as much as 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100 — could become (in ecoSanity’s words) a blow torch accelerator of rapid, unstoppable, irreversible (self-perpetuated / reinforced) heat feedback.
Put another way, this would be ‘GAME OVER’ ON A HORRIFIC SCALE for most life, and would persist long beyond any relevant human time frame.
Quick facts
► Methane is a carbon molecule 86-100 times more potent as a global warming (heat-trapping) gas than CO2 over a 20-year time horizon. It remains in the atmosphere for about 12 years, over which time its heating impact is 100 times that of CO2, and only disappears as it is converted to other greenhouse gases (GHGs), the most notable, CO2.
► Permafrost contains TRILLIONS OF TONS of frozen carbon, at least twice as much as is in our entire atmosphere. This important 2013 study concludes that Siberian permafrost has a ‘thaw down’ tipping point of +1.5ºC (of heating since pre-industrial times, pre-1900), which means that a global climate not much warmer than today (+0.85ºC) appears to be sufficient to melt significant regions. And THAT makes East Siberian shelf sub-seafloor methane a massive, planetary catastrophe risk.
► Melt / destabilization ALREADY causes more and more methane to vent from its safe, frozen state every year.
► On our present course, and based on conservative estimates, an IRREVERSIBLE carbon tipping point could occur within 20 years (between 2020 and 2030).
► This could result in the release of at least 100 BILLION tons (a lot) of carbon by 2100, and two thirds of stored deposits by 2200.
► NO climate models to date incorporate consideration of the various amplifying and inter-reinforcing Arctic feedbacks (loss of sea ice-albedo, warming northern peatlands, methane release from permafrost melt, methane clathrates from the melt of ocean floors, nitrous oxide feedback, soot) nor do they evaluate their combined impacts.
► “Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.” (NSF Nat’l Science Foundation press release, March 2010.) In Earth’s history, sudden flips to a different, unstable global climate state of +2ºC to +4ºC have occurred over as brief as a 3-year period of time. And the known records are +6ºC over 1–3 years, and +10-12ºC over 50 years. (Steffensen, 2008)
► CO2 emissions are cumulative, which is BAD because, even if we could reduce them to zero this minute, inertia from the 30 to 40-year lag between the release of heat trapping gases and the lifetime of a major proportion of CO2 emissions (the primary source of inertia based on the time it takes for that energy to force itself into the climate system / 90% oceans) would continue to warm the planet. Global average temps would still rise for decades and any reduction from a future peak (if a runaway tip was somehow avoided) would take hundreds of years.
► International climate negotiations can’t even find agreement on inadequate emissions reduction targets based on flawed climate models (watch this short video) and dangerous, outdated science (another short video) that doesn’t include feedback loops, the main driver of the climate crisis, let alone the catastrophic threat of the Arctic feedbacks outlined above which, based on current negotiation parameters, are still not even under consideration. (Compilation: UN Climate Talks: Betrayal of Life.)
Reality
Difficult as it is to communicate, absorb and process, let alone accept, and as shrill / alarmist as it may sound…
Our shared atmosphere is on an accelerating course to reach a state of potentially unsurvivable, global climate extremes during the lives of today’s children and teens. (Compilation: +4°C by 2060s or sooner catastrophic / incompatible with organized civilization.)
Clear, present impacts ALREADY displace millions / KILL hundreds of thousands each year, and compromise the lives of billions RIGHT NOW.
No less than the fate of all generations of all peoples and most species hangs in the balance TODAY. And only emergency international action at emergency (world war-time) speed FAST *may be* proportional enough to confront the scale, scope and urgency of what is ALREADY the greatest crime against humanity, most life and most future life EVER. (Compilation: Betrayal of Life.)
Watch the videos in the playlist above. Further info in the resources below. And for a few specifics about what climateye has concluded must be done in order to have any chance to prevent imminent catastrophe, see: Compilation: Geoengineering and the global climate EMERGENCY.
More
Methane time bomb
- Website – Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG)
- Post – Rapid warming/disintegrating polar ice set stage for ‘societal collapse’, CP
- Post – IPCC warns methane traps much more heat than we thought, J. Romm, CP
- Article – +1.5ºC rise in temp enough to start permafrost melt, F. Harvey, Guardian
- Article – 7 facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb, Guardian
- Post – Arctic methane release due to climate change could cost global economy $60 trillion, study reports, Nina Chestney, Reuters
- Post – NASA finds ‘amazing’ levels of Arctic methane and CO2, asks ‘is a sleeping climate giant stirring in the Arctic?’, Joe Romm, CP
- Media release – Is a sleeping giant stirring in the Arctic? NASA
- Article – Thawing permafrost may be “huge factor” in global warming, Leahy, IPS
- Post – Permafrost 101: Why not to account for thawing ground in climate projections, Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief via CP
- Post – IPCC’s planned obsolescence: 5th assessment report will ignore crucial permafrost carbon feedback, Joe Romm, CP
- Post – Changing gulf stream destabilizing frozen methane deposits under the sea floor, Stephen Lacey, CP
- Post – Report says IPCC needs to address melting permafrost, Climate Central
- Post – Nature bombshell: ‘Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Article – Implications of Arctic permafrost thaw, Ian Dunlop, ClubofRome.org
- Rebuttal – Imminent collapse of Arctic sea ice drives danger of accelerated methane thaw, Professor Peter Wadhams, arctic-news.blogspot.com
- Article – Call for Arctic geoengineering as soon as possible, New Scientist
- Article – Vast methane ‘plumes’ in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats, Independent
- Post – Arctic methane outgassing on East Siberian Shelf, Part 1: Background, SS
- Post – Arctice methane outgassing on E. Siberian Shelf, Part 2: An interview with Dr. Natalia Shakhova, Skeptical Science
- Post – RealClimate alarmed by Arctic methane, should you be? Climate Progress
- Post – Nature bombshell: Experts warn thawing permafrost could cause 2.5 times the warming of deforestation, J. Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – Level of heat trapping CO2 reaches new high, growth rate speeds up, methane levels are rising again, J. Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – The new Arctic abnormal: Record low sea ice volume, area, extent, Romm, CP
- Post – Arctic ice thinning 4 x faster than predicted by IPCC models, semi-stunning M.I.T. study finds, J. Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – Bombshell: Warming may shrink Russian permafrost 30% by 2050, CP
- Article – Russia may lose 30% of permafrost by 2050, Physorg.com
- Article – Arctic melt ‘will accelerate global warming within 20 yrs’, Independent
- Post – Wakening the Kraken, Agnostic & Daniel Bailey, Skeptical Science
- Post – The methane hydrate feedback revisited, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – NSIDC Bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn arctic from carbon sink to source in 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100, Romm, CP
- Article – Arctic ice in death spiral, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – Methane releases in Arctic seas could wreak devastation, Sci News
- Article – Methane, nitrous oxide emissions underestimated, Science Daily
- Article – Methane melt: The most important story you don’t follow, World Changing
- Article – Methane releases may be much larger/faster, National Science Fdn
- Post – Stunner: Vast East Siberian shelf methane stores destabilizing/venting, J. Romm, Climate Progress
- Article – Methane levels may see ‘runaway’ rise, Michael McCarthy, Independent
- Article – Defusing the methane time bomb, C. Mims, Scientific American
- Article – What if everything you knew about projected global warming was wrong? Mikkel Fishman, TheModerateVoice.com
- Article – Dramatic (abrupt) climate change is unpredictable, Science Daily
- Article – Climate change: The 30-40-year delay between cause and effect, Alan Marshall, Skeptical Science
Arctic meltdown
- Video – Watch 27 years of ‘old’ Arctic ice melt away in seconds, NOAA
- Post – Climate change altering the Arctic faster than expected, CC
- Post – Rapid warming/disintegrating polar ice set stage for ‘societal collapse’, CP
- Article – Arctic temps reach highest levels in 44,000 years, Live Science via HP
- Article – Eastern Arctic temps likely at 120,000-year high, Emily Chung, CBC
- Post – Last time Arctic was this warm was 120,000 years ago, A. Freedman, CC
- Post – IPCC warns methane traps much more heat than we thought, Romm, CP
- Post – IPCC’s planned obsolescence: 5th assessment report will ignore crucial permafrost carbon feedback, Joe Romm, CP
- Post – Summer ice melt on Antarctic peninsula now nonlinear, fastest in more than 1,000 years, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – Confirmed: Sea ice volume has collapsed, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – New Arctic feedback: Melt ponds cause sea ice to melt more rapidly, CP
- Post – Climate change driving Arctic into ‘new state’, with rapid ice loss, record permafrost warming, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – Accelerated warming driving Arctic into new volatile state, Freedman, CC
- Report – Arctic continues to break records in 2012: Becoming warmer, greener region with record losses of summer sea ice and late spring snow, NOAA
- Post – After the Arctic big melt: (1) A hotter planet, D. Spratt, Climate Code Red
- Article – Saving Arctic ice #1: Greenpeace, greenwashing and geoengineering, HP
- Article – Saving Arctic ice #2: Greenpeace, greenwashing and geoengineering, HP
- Post – An illustrated guide to 2012 record Arctic sea ice melt, N. Acropolis, CP
- Post – 7 reasons why Arctic sea ice matters, Russell McLendon, MNN
- Post – Arctic warming is altering weather patterns, A. Friedman, Climate Central
- Article – Arctic “death spiral” leaves scientists shocked and worried, VO
- Post – Arctic warning: As the system changes, we must adjust our science, CCR
- Post – It’s already too hot, as Greenland melt record is smashed, D. Spratt, CCR
- Post – Why the Arctic death spiral matters, N. Acropolis, K. McKinney, CP
- Post – Arctic: Thick, multi-year sea ice melting faster, NASA, J. Romm, CP
- Release – NASA mission “GRACE” takes stock of Earth’s melting land ice, NASA
- Post – Pine Island glacier loss must force another look at sea-level forecasts as giant iceberg is spawned, D. Spratt, Climate Code Red
- Article – Climate change in Arctic could trigger domino effect around world, IBT
- Blog – Arctic death spiral: 2nd lowest June sea ice extent, lowest June volume, CP
- Article – Arctic ice in death spiral, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – Arctic shifts to new climate pattern, ‘normal’ is obsolete, ClimateWire
- Post – Lowest volume of multi-year Arctic ice in thousands of years, CP
- Post – 2010: Global climate showing signs of instability, Joe Romm, CP
Massive disruption of Northern Hemisphere jet stream / weather patterns / extremes
- Post – The Arctic’s freezer door is open, David Spratt, Climate Code Red
- Post – Polar Vortex in U.S. may be example of global warming, Climate Central
- Video – Effects of Arctic amplification, Earth Now
- Post – Study adds to Arctic warming, extreme weather debate, Climate Central
- Article – Killer heat waves and floods lead to climate change, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – Why our turbulent weather is getting even harder to predict, Guardian
- Release – Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere, likely boosted by global warming, Potsdam Institute via Climate Progress
- Article – Extreme weather linked to giant waves in atmosphere, Live Science
- Post – Polar jet stream appears hugely deformed, Sam Carana, Arctic News
- Post – Arctic warming is altering weather patterns, Climate Central
- Post – Climate change and the jet stream, Climate Sight
General
- Website – Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG.me)
- Wikipedia – Methane
- Wikipedia – Atmospheric methane
- Wikipedia – Arctic methane release
- Wikipedia – Climate change feedback
- Wikipedia – Climate tipping point(s)
- Wikipedia – Abrupt climate change
- Wikipedia – Clathrate gun hypothesis
- Wikipedia – Methane clathrate (hydrate)
- Wikipedia – Arctic shrinkage
- Wikipedia – Siberia
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