“There is a widespread view that a +4ºC future is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems and has a high probability of not being stable.” ~ Professor Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (Video, 58:00)
Scientists at a UK conference – 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre in Sept. 2009 sought to contemplate the potential for adaptation to a planet that, it was suggested, on our present course would become at least +4C hotter by 2100 (global average), and perhaps as soon as 2055.
The betrayal is that it is not possible to adapt to a +4C hotter world. In fact, it may only be possible for a portion of humanity to survive it, and not easily or pleasantly. And that would be temporary because +4C would be well beyond tipping points that would lead to +5C, +6C, and so on.
The neighborhood of +6C global average temperature increase beyond pre-industrial (1900) levels is considered unlivable for most life. A rise of +3C would assure the catastrophic collapse of agriculture worldwide. In vulnerable climates like Africa, this tip would begin at +1C and occur through the lead up to +2C (billions hungry or starved).
An expanded summary will follow. Meanwhile, check out the resources below.
Selected articles, posts
- Compilation – CON JOB – Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 (especially Part 3)
- Compilation – EMERGENCY human impact reports expose the greatest crime against humanity, most life and most future life EVER
- Compilation – Dr. James Hansen and the global climate EMERGENCY
- Compilation – Catastrophic Arctic ‘death spiral’ meltdown / imminent mass methane (super potent greenhouse / heat-trapping gas) ‘time bomb’ release and the global climate EMERGENCY
- Plan B 4.0: Months, not years to save civilization from climate change, L. Brown
- Analysis – Is climate change already dangerous, D. Spratt, CCR, Part 5 (of 5)
- Post – Scientists call for war on climate change, but who on Earth is listening, CCR
- Article – End of the world is just a matter of degrees, says one expert, The Age
- Article – On course to suffer catastrophic heating of 4C, Paddy Manning, SMH
- Article – 2 degrees of disaster, Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker
- Article – No rainforest, no monsoon, get ready for a warmer world, New Scientist
- Article – Climate change scientists warn of +4C temperature rise “within a lifetime”, and little or no chance of limiting rise to +2C, Damian Carrington, The Guardian
- Article – Crop failures / drought within our children’s lifetimes, The Independent
- Article – Cancun Climate Change Summit: Scientists call for WW2-like rationing in developed world, Louise Gray, The Telegraph
- Article – Andrew Simms, 72 months and counting, The Guardian
- Post – Royal Society details ‘hellish vision’ of +4C (7F) world by 2060s! Joe Romm, CP
- Report/collected articles – +4C and Beyond: Potential + Implications, Royal Society
- Post – Dire projections of +4°C–6°C temp rise by 2100 (deadly to most life) conservative, could be +10°C–12°C! Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA
- Post – +4C hotter, an adaptation trap? David Spratt, Climate Code Red
- Primer PDF – +4C hotter, a Climate Action Center primer, David Spratt, ClimateActionCenter.org
- Hansen: Re-thinking a “safe climate”: Have we already gone too far? CCR
- Models guiding climate policy ‘dangerously optimistic’
Reports
- IPCC
- Report – IPCC AR5 2013 / 2014
- Wold Bank – Turn Down the Heat
- Report – Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, The World Bank
- Report – 4-degrees briefing for the World Bank: The risks of a future without climate policy, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- Post – Shocking World Bank climate report: ‘A 4C (7.2F) world can, and must, be avoided’ to avert ‘devastating’ impacts, Joe Romm, Climate Progress
- Post – World Bank report: ‘A disastrously warming planet threatens to…roll back decades of development’, Joe Romm, CP
- Post – CO2 hits new high; World could hit 7.2F (4C) by 2060, Climate Central
- Article – Planet on path to 4C warming, World Bank reports, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – All nations will suffer devastating effects of 4C climate change, Reuters
- Article – A hotter world is a hungry world, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – Famine the final wake up call on global warming, Canberra Times
- Article – World bank should take its own advice on climate change, Green Left
- Post – World Bank’s new climate strategy: Keep financing coal, just don’t call it a coal plant, Nicole Ghio, CP
- IEA – WEO
- Report – World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA
- Article – How the IEA says we can avoid 6C of warming, 3 graphs, Carbon Brief
- Report – World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA
- Press release – World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA
- Post – IEA report: Fossil fuel boom is a climate disaster in the making, CP
- Price Waterhouse Coopers
- Report – Low carbon economy index 2012: Too late for two degrees? PWC
- Article – Mankind approaching ‘carbon cliff’, report warns, Stephen Leahy, IPS
- Article – Study: World on track for at least 6C warming without carbon cuts, PWC
- Article – Famine the final wake up call on global warming, Canberra Times
- UNEP – Emssions Gap
- Report – The Emissions Gap Report 2013, UNEP
- UNEP – GEO 5
- Report – Global Environment Outlook (GEO) 5, UNEP
- Planet Under Pressure
- Declaration – State of the Planet Declaration (10-page PDF)
- Blue Planet Laureates
- Report – Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative to Act (23-pg PDF), Blue Planet Laureates
- 2011 – Royal Society
- Report – Four degrees and beyond, The Royal Society
- Post – Royal Society details ‘hellish vision’ of +4C (7F) world by 2060s! Romm, CP
- Report/articles – +4C and Beyond: Potential + Implications, Royal Society
General
- Website – Climate Interactive Scoreboard
- Website – Climate Action Tracker
- Map – Google Climate Map offers glimpse of 4C world, The Guardian
- Conference – 4 Degrees & Beyond, Tyndall Centre
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